How are the Sixers worse through 27 games than last year?
I’m not trying to sounding alarms, but through 27 games the Sixers appear worse than their start from last year:
2019–20: 20–7, +6.2 point/game differential (+167 total)
2020–21: 18–9, +3.3 point/game differential (+90 total)
Of course, last year’s Sixers would limp to a 23–23 record over their final 46 regular season games and then lose four consecutive playoff games, with a net rating of +2.4 for the full season. There’s no sign of that happening, absent a traumatic event, but I’m basing this thought more on vibes (it’s 2021, that’s how we measure things now) than on actual on-court product. The chemistry and in-fighting didn’t manifest until game 28 last season, which started a 3-game losing streak and the eventual car crash. People (Joel Embiid) seem happy this year.
Caveats obviously apply — the pandemic has wreaked havoc across the NBA, and game-to-game performance for teams has been inconsistent. But for those that fashion the Sixers to be title contenders — their peripherals certainly don’t support that right now, with a pythagorean record of just 16–11 backing up their 18–9 record. They have the scoring differential of a good team, not a great team.
But why do we feel so much better than we did in December 2019, when the Sixers had their 20–7 record and things hadn’t fallen apart? Is it because of the return of an old, familiar friend?
Welcome back, Joel Embiid’s on/off differential!
Sixers w/ Joel Embiid ON, through 27 games 2019–20: +124
Sixers w/ Joel Embiid ON, through 27 games 2020–21: +162
Sixers w/ Joel Embiid OFF, through 27 games 2019–20: +43
Sixers w/ Joel Embiid OFF, through 27 games 2020–21: -252
Those figures strike me as emblematic of the team’s situation on the whole — the Sixers with Embiid are better than last year, because Embiid has been the best per-minute player in the NBA, but if Embiid is this good, why aren’t the Sixers better than they are? Harris is also having a bounce-back year. Was last year’s start more promising than we remembered before it all fell apart? I wasn’t sure, so I dug in.
Embiid’s plus/minus numbers from this year are actually seriously impressive, and last year’s numbers are the fool’s gold
Embiid’s plus/minus legend was built over time — his on/off impact always exceeded his reputed ranking among top NBA players. His piece de resistance — game 7 of the 2018–19 playoff series against the Raptors — literally inspired the existing front office to invest all of its cap space in someone whose best role would be as a backup center, just because everyone expected Embiid to carry the team to an elite record with his on-court impact alone.
Last year’s on/off was mostly buoyed by Brett Brown’s rotation decisions — Embiid played heavy minutes against backups, where he could 80% effort his way to a still-elite on/off rating. While still good overall, lineups featuring Embiid weren’t always dominant because of the flawed roster construction — the core of starting lineup was a minus (with Embiid-Simmons-Horford outscored across all combinations, and they played too many minutes in a fool-hearted attempt to make it work).
This year, the Sixers’ starting lineup has a net rating of +12.2 in the second-most minutes (333) played by any one NBA lineup (behind the Knicks’ starters — Tom Thibodeau!).* Given the rotation decisions, Embiid is playing mostly with this lineup — and mostly against starting lineups, or their equivalents, from opposing teams. The Sixers’ planned starters from 2019–20 were +8.1, which is still good, but not dominant. Further, this year’s unit has already played more minutes than last year’s planned starters.
Embiid’s on-court dominance is back, but with even more efficient offense. He’s top 10 in usage AND efficiency. Embiid is not the problem — he has almost never been the problem — so then it stands to reason that there’s something amiss with the non-Embiid lineups. If reason took you there, congrats, you’re right!
*This obviously pales in comparison to a pair of memorable Sixers lineups — lineups featuring Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, and Embiid from 2017–18, and the vaunted Sixers Lineup of Doom of Jrue Holiday, Jodie Meeks, Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, and Elton Brand from the lockout-shortened 2011–12 season. Both had +/- ratings of around +20.
The bench situation has worsened, both in terms of play and in usage
The Sixers outscored opponents without Embiid on the floor in the first 27 games of 2019–20, which is shocking to hear in retrospect. It turns out that Al Horford, and not Dwight Howard, was Joel Embiid’s best backup. But it’s less that than personnel limitations not too dissimilar to last year’s.
Extreme staggering of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid meant that the Sixers could have one of their stars on the court at all times. Taking that a step further — last season it meant Simmons, Tobias Harris, and Horford shared the court for most non-Embiid minutes in games he played. This year, Doc Rivers has opted for 5-man bench units while trying to keep the starting lineup together as much as possible.
I understand that decision on multiple levels. The Sixers have two new starters and very limited practice time. Also, it’s been mostly confirmed that Simmons can’t buoy an offense with Dwight Howard on the court, so Simmons/Embiid staggering makes less sense, especially as Embiid and Simmons have played better together this season than ever before. The first issue is that the drop-off from Simmons/Horford lineups to all bench is the likely big driver of the change, and that’s something we need to just accept.
The second issue is that the bench has underperformed relative to expectations. Shake Milton has been fine overall — and will be even better once he starts hitting threes at his career three point percentage. Howard has been exactly what you expect— a physical, elite rebounder with a fouling problem. Everyone else has underperformed. Matisse Thybulle’s defense has mostly met expectations, but his offense has fallen from one crater into another, deeper crater. You expect Furkan Korkmaz to struggle on defense, but his offense has also been objectively horrible — sub-40% from the floor, 33% from three. Tyrese Maxey is a rookie with clear, significant potential. He’s also shooting poorly from the floor and isn’t a three-point threat. Mike Scott died on his way back to the Hive Planet.
We probably overrated the bench’s capabilities prior to the year, mostly because they haven’t had to sink-or-swim without having starters play alongside them, and playing without starters has exposed why these players are bench players. Inserting Harris into these lineups was a nice start, but doing so inconsistently at this point is a coaching issue. The bench isn’t good enough to survive on its own — it can’t create good shots without Harris. Harris with the second unit needs to be a permanent rotation feature, and questions should be asked each time Rivers strays away from it.
The Sixers starters with Embiid have some problems, too
I am not the first person to point this out, though I did call it out in the season opener, so I suppose I may have been — the Sixers have a three-point attempt problem. The Sixers are 27th in overall three point rate despite having two outlets for consistent three point generation, Embiid post-ups and Simmons fast break pressure. Seth Curry is averaging almost two fewer threes per 36 minutes compared to last year with Dallas; Tobias Harris is at one fewer three per 36. And it’s getting worse as the season goes along. Last season, they were 22nd in three point rate, with three more attempts per game despite having a slower pace. Given the roster changes, that’s headed in the wrong direction.
Why is that happening? It’s not a pace issue — the Sixers have a top 10 pace by most measures. I have some ideas. First, the Sixers’ halfcourt sets aren’t designed to generate threes. They figure to use their size advantage to generate at-rim attempts. This makes sense — the team leads the league in free throw rate as a result. But it also means that you’re sometimes going to be outscored by 33 points from three on the road and not be able to overcome it.
The Sixers are going to have a higher volume of midrange attempts than most teams, because Joel Embiid is shooting well over 50% on those shots. But by taking a higher share than all by one other NBA team, while also having a high turnover rate (28th in the league), the Sixers are putting a cap on their offensive potential. If defenses don’t double Embiid, they don’t have a route to generate consistent threes in their halfcourt offense, because players cannot capably generate their own threes.
I’ve been calling for this all year, but the obvious solution would be to have someone replace Danny Green in the starting lineup who can create three-point offense on his own. Green’s elite off-ball defense is overshadowed by his now below-average on-ball abilities, and he’s having an average shooting season. Plus, he can’t dribble. Having a wing that creates threes off the dribble would be a critically huge addition to the starting lineup, and I think the addition raises the lineup’s ceiling.
The bench could use someone to replace Mike Scott and who can slot in comfortably alongside the starters, allowing Harris to carry bench lineups. I’m not pointing out anything revolutionary here — people who watch the team closely would tell you these are the key weaknesses, anti-Simmons bias aside. Everyone says the obvious *because* it’s obvious. Simmons could also stand to wipe away record of his first 15 games of the season; now that Harden talk is over, I hope that his improvement since then maintains.
The Sixers are good, because Embiid is incredible. They’re not good enough to win anything based on their current roster, coaching and schemes could stand to improve, and moves at the trade deadline will determine whether the Sixers can take a necessary step up. The defense I think will come; the offense around Embiid needs work. Embiid is good enough to think that, with improvements around him, that it’s 100% possible the Sixers go very far this season. Let’s make it happen, Daryl.