On Six Questions I Have About The Sixers

The scars from last season’s traumatizing end feel less fresh than I anticipated they would. Losing to the eventual NBA champions on an unfortunate bout of gravity made it difficult to watch playoff games in the two following series. It also hurt because of how the Sixers responded in the immediate aftermath: with tears, the open thoughts of what could have been, and the unspoken suggestion that the team was being broken apart.

What if Joel Embiid didn’t come down with two separate illnesses in a two-week span during the most important time in his career? What if the Sixers close out game four at home to take a 3–1 series lead instead of missing open shot after open shot while Kawhi Leonard shot daggers?

I lied. The scars still seethe, when I think about them.

But I try not to as much nowadays. Misery can weigh you down, pressuring you to look back instead of forward. Thinking of what could have been instead of what could be. The Sixers, knowing Jimmy Butler had eyes for Miami’s rapidly sinking shorelines, pivoted over the summer and are eyeing the finals with a roster construction as radical for any contender as one can recall. The Sixers’ commitment to size is only matched by Frank Thomas in inappropriate nootropic commercials, and most of my questions for next season relate to the funkiness of the team in general.

Let’s get after it.

What does the Sixers’ go-to offensive play look like?

I like aesthetic variety in my basketball watching. Seeing James Harden 40+ times a year can be boring af, but getting a Harden game mixed in, watching him methodically but also in nanoseconds determine the statistically correct play, is a celebration of a cerebral, dominant scorer unlike one we’ve ever seen. The game-breaking champion Warriors played with a skill level so absurd that the games could feel like an out of body experience, but there were only so many times that you could realize the defense hardly mattered before you tired of the games. Nikola Jokic creates offense like no one from the center position, but then after a while you realize the back cuts are almost always the same.

The Sixers never felt that way to me, surely in part because I was a fan, but also because the Sixers played a style all their own that was also interactive and also even the Sixers didn’t know what was happening like 40% of the time. It’s something about the unrestrained potential and Brett Brown’s willingness to accept sloppiness if it leads to growth. Maybe Joel Embiid can eurostep around the guard from the three point line? Possibilities were endless. The crushing mistakes and the incredible wonders came from the same good intent.

The team also consciously ran fewer pick and rolls than any other team due to a cosmic belief in the power of passing and Ben Simmons’ inability to run a high pick and roll without a jumper. The Sixers ran dribble-handoff motions as the linchpin of a top 10 offense last year. When that didn’t work, there was always Jimmy in a high pick-and-roll. Those days are done.

Given the collective size of the roster and presence of centers, it’s tempting to say the Sixers will look to the post more. It’s a smart bet that they’ll lead the NBA in doing so this season. The Sixers ranked fifth in post-ups per game during 2018–19, behind only the Timberwolves, Spurs, Warriors, and Nuggets. Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns and LaMarcus Aldridge still exist, so those teams aren’t moving much. But the Sixers need something to generate offense, and given that they’ll have size advantages most of the time, the post-up will be (pardon the pun) huge.

But post-ups, as most people reading this would know, are themselves historically an inefficient source of offense. The Sixers averaged less than a point per possession on post plays, which is to say, it’s not as efficient as the average NBA offense. By being so big and skilled, can the Sixers tilt those percentages closer to average? Normally post-ups are at best a way to generate offense for others by exploiting mismatches, but I’m not sure the Sixers have enough shooting to make the play a go-to.

Brett Brown has gone on the record saying Embiid will be the go-to scorer. Does he create for himself more out of the post? Can he and Tobias Harris create an effective two-man game? Is it Embiid and Richardson together, running off-shoots of old Redick plays? Simmons and Embiid can’t run high pick-and-rolls until Simmons becomes a shooter worth respecting… and even if he is more willing to shoot threes, it seems more likely that opponents defend him a la Rajon Rondo — an otherwise average shooter unwilling to take enough shots to make it hurt more than anything Simmons would otherwise do.

The preseason offered few answers to this. Most sets the team ran were vanilla, some being derivatives of sets run previously and others common set offenses from around the NBA. I’m interested to see how much high post offense they run — Horford and Kyle O’Quinn are gifted passers. Can Embiid improve there as well?

The answer to what the go-to play is should be evident relatively early in the season, and it could mean a lot to what the Sixers choose to do near the trade deadline and beyond. My guess: the Sixers will try to force a Harris-Embiid pick-and-roll to happen, with a Richardson-Embiid pnr as the eventual move. Embiid will become surly if he’s not involved, and Richardson is the best dribbler on the team. Don’t be surprised if there’s some Al Horford in there as well.

How well will the Sixers defend without Joel Embiid?

The Sixers were an average defensive team in 2018–19, 15th in defensive rating per Basketball Reference. This is in part because their backup center position offered the resistance of a dunk tank, but the non-Embiid members of the roster largely load managed themselves on defense. Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons selectively defended their position, and the team never really recovered its disruptive ethos after trading Robert Covington.

Having Al Horford, another top 10 defensive center, as a backup should alleviate many of the issues the team had when Embiid dared saunter toward the bench. Amir Johnson was beached-whale washed up. Boban Marjanovic, bless his heart, was actually worse (I still believe in Boban, btw — he’ll be situationally great in Dallas… on offense). Mike Muscala still hurts to type. Greg Monroe happened, now let us never speak of it again. And Jonah Bolden was never really a usable center unless assigned to defend someone on the perimeter; the Karl-Anthony Towns game happened and thrilled us all, but it was all downhill from there.

2019–20 third center Kyle O’Quinn is a better defender than any of last year’s options, and he’ll only be sporadically relied upon.

Swapping in Josh Richardson, a max-effort defender, for J.J. Redick, who can only be considered that charitably during the playoffs, should also provide an extra steady hand. Add in full seasons potentially of Matisse Thybulle and James Ennis III to the rotation, and there are few leaks on the roster.

Thybulle is especially exciting as he has the makings of a real disruptor a la Covington. The team’s biggest advantage is that they are big, and open shots have smaller windows when large arms and bodies are flying at you. But the Sixers didn’t create enough of the best defensive result, which is a turnover. Turnovers result in 0 points per possession, famously, which is #good. The Sixers ranked 28th in opponent’s turnover percentage last year. Adding Thybulle will undoubtedly help. So will having Josh Richardson in place of J.J. Redick and a competent backline which can promote more situational gambling by perimeter defenders.

The issues weren’t just in STOCKS and disinterest. Last season, the team opted for one-on-one coverage for their guards and wings against opponents, gambling that their size would matter enough elsewhere to switch on the perimeter one-through-four. Switching was a mandate to prevent open threes based on defensive switches and in response to the expectation that switching would be the norm during key playoff moments. It too often left players like Dario Saric and the aforementioned Muscala on proverbial islands to defend much quicker players; they stood little chance. Now, instead of Saric and Muscala, the best odds of this happening are with Mike Scott, Al Horford, and Tobias Harris. I like those options better.

The Sixers with Embiid on the court will continue to have an elite defense, because Embiid is per-minute the NBA’s best defender. The Sixers without Embiid for 15–20 games in an ideal world probably can still defend at a top 5 level, because Horford, Simmons, and Richardson are all top-tier defenders. It’ll be the key for them to make it to the top of the Eastern Conference. I think they’ll top the league here.

Have things been too quiet recently, or is that just me?

The Sixers are the messiest, drama-filled friend we have. Are they finally growing up and settling down? Maybe they’re buying a house? Has Al Horford really professionalized the organization in three short months?

The lack of drama is both refreshing and also a bit sad, since you could always count on something ridiculous to happen with them. The below incomplete list all happened since burnergate.

• J.J. Redick witnessed human trafficking in his hotel-assigned car service and talked about on his podcast instead of reporting to the authorities.
• Markelle Fultz continued to forget how to shoot, got a starting lineup position anyway, and reacted to airballs by firing his shooting coach after a shouting match with his mom and quit the team because he got benched for T.J. McConnell.
• Furkan Korkmaz demanded a trade because he wasn’t being utilized properly and then started a playoff game and re-signed here during this past summer.
• Jimmy Butler got traded to Philadelphia because he openly attempted a coup with the third teamers during a Timberwolves practice because Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns were soft and then blew up during film sessions and stopped taking threes because he hated dribble hand-offs.
• Joel Embiid criticized play-calling and said hated taking threes because I think he was just in the mood to lie?

So far this year? NOTHING. Ben Simmons telling reporters to stop asking him questions about his jumper doesn’t count. Just give me one piece of drama for me to stalk Instagram over for clues, please. Something is going to happen.

What do the Sixers have to offer in a trade… and is there anyone they can afford with their current roster?

Like many others, I’ve read between the lines and also figured out the eventual winner of the Raul Neto-Trey Burke quiet tournament redux is likely to be whatever is in the mystery box. It could even be Jonathon Simmons (heaven help us). Brown is obviously reaching for answers by employing Josh Richardson and Shake Milton in extended preseason point guard minutes despite neither being qualified for the position.

I do support Shake Milton: rotation player possibilities, though! He can score, and the Sixers need that… on the wings.

Anyway: the Sixers have a topsided roster in terms of salaries, which tends to happen when you build around top-end talent. Having good players on max contracts is a blessing and a curse. I understand the angst around not having T.J. McConnell back on a deal to move him in a trade — and he’d be right in the thick of the aforementioned point guard battle. But he’s also just not that good, doesn’t really offer scoring or floor spacing, and would be played too much anyway because he knows the system and doesn’t make mistakes.

The Sixers need a guard that can score and dish at a solid level, a B+ backup guard. Milton is probably a year or two away from that himself, and I don’t know if he gets there on helping others score enough. Those players are eminently available if you’re willing to pay a small price of prospects or draft picks. But as the Sixers are over the NBA salary cap, they need to structure the trade so that salaries are within 25% of matching. That becomes harder when the salaries are exorbitant or on the rookie scale without much in between.

In order to match a $10 million salary, roughly the level of the NBA’s mid-level exception, the Sixers either have to offer Josh Richardson (who makes more) or a combination of Mike Scott and at least two of their young players, whether that be Thybulle, Zhaire Smith, Milton, Bolden, etc. It won’t be easy to make a move for salary. It’s the reason the McConnell decision was at least questionable, since the Sixers could have offered him up to $7 million to sign here. He received $7 million over two seasons from Indiana.

It seems unlikely then that the Sixers will pull off a significant move unless it’s someone who is already underpaid (and thus may cost more) or on a rookie deal (and will become very expensive soon, and is thus a rental). And the cost of doing so will likely include one or more promising young players along with a local folk hero popular with the team’s business side and with a young, vocal fan group that it’s actively cultivating with appearances, meet-and-greets, and merch.

And, as we’ve learned in the whole Michael Carter-Williams trade aftermath: as a general manager, cross the business operations team at your own peril.

All of that said: this is the first time since Bryan Colangelo actively torpedoed the cupboards to make space for his clean, pressed, large-collared shirts that the Sixers have some roster depth from which to trade. Milton’s development has come along nicely, Zhaire Smith appears healthy and improved (though he needs reps in the worst way), and Thybulle looks like an A+ pick already. James Ennis has proven rotation value, if you’re looking to make a trade with another playoff hopeful. The Delaware operation appears to be finally paying off, and Brand has had finds in the post-lottery in consecutive drafts. And Mike Scott does look a bit duplicitous when you look at the rest of the roster.

My take: a trade will happen, maybe even in advance of the deadline, especially when we know the extent of the issue. Patience is in short supply, and we might be in position to overpay again for our target.

How long is Brett Brown’s leash?

A lot of people responded poorly to Marc Stein’s eventually incorrect report that the team was firing Brown after the team’s last playoff loss, blaming Stein for the error. Stein ultimately accepted the error, but really, he was reporting something as official that was all but at the time. That ownership changed its decision-making late in the process with additional information is not something out of character for the group. Brown held on by the skin of his teeth it seems.

The optimism around this year’s team in general has quieted any word about Brown losing his job. I, personally, don’t think it should happen. He out-coached his more well-regarded counterparts throughout most of the playoffs, center-related antics aside. His teams routinely do well in situations that appear most coach-controlled, and his star players fully support his continued employment.

If the Sixers fall short of the Eastern Conference Finals, there will undoubtedly be a change. In the meantime, any sign of trouble or adjustment could be a call for a coaching change. There will be a fall man if the team struggles. The roster has radically changed again — here’s hoping they give Brown the gift of time. I think he’ll make it through the season, but I’m holding my breath.

Can the Sixers seriously contend for a title with as much uncertainty as there is around their offense?

I have little doubt that the Sixers as constructed will win a lot of games assuming average or better health. The defense is too good, and the players are too talented, for me to believe otherwise. They have the makings of an excellent regular season team — if some things break right and the young players live up to expectations, they can be the 1-seed in the East and a 60-win team. The ceiling, like the team’s height, is generally very tall.

Having the eighth ranked offense from a year ago and losing both Redick and Butler makes me question how good the offense can reasonably be given what we’ve seen this preseason. Simmons looks like he’ll still shoot as a last resort; the shot looks better, but that doesn’t mean as much as him being able to hit it consistently including with some degree of difficulty. That may never happen. Can he become a more efficient scorer, and will he look to score more on his own? Embiid’s three still looks like a chore, which still makes no sense to me, and he worked less on his game than his health this summer — can we expect any more from him? Tobias Harris may never be the 40% three point shooter we saw with the Clippers — is he actually worth anywhere near what he’s being paid on the market if he’s just an average shooter?

The answers to those questions are going to decide the fates of the team, not necessarily in the order that I posed those questions. If all breaks in our favor — if Simmons can be a scorer (even if not a shooter), if Embiid inches up another step on offense, if Harris can be an elite three-level scorer — then the Sixers may very well be the Juggernaut fans have envisioned since the start of the Process. I think the Sixers can make it to the finals even if one of the three rings true.

If not, we’ll only have more questions — namely, can this core get to the finals before it’s too late? As crazy as it sounds, the clock is now ticking.